Thursday, December 23, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
"Once again we find ourselves enmeshed in the Holiday Season, that very special time of year when we join with our loved ones in sharing centuries-old traditions such as trying to find a parking space at the mall. We traditionally do this in my family by driving around the parking lot until we see a shopper emerge from the mall, then we follow her, in very much the same spirit as the Three Wise Men, who 2,000 years ago followed a star, week after week, until it led them to a parking space."
Dave Barry
"In the old days, it was not called the Holiday Season; the Christians called it 'Christmas' and went to church; the Jews called it 'Hanukka' and went to synagogue; the atheists went to parties and drank. People passing each other on the street would say 'Merry Christmas!' or 'Happy Hanukka!' or (to the atheists) 'Look out for the wall!'"
Dave Barry
"Christmas is a time when everybody wants his past forgotten and his present remembered. What I don't like about office Christmas parties is looking for a job the next day."
Phyllis Diller
"Christmas at my house is always at least six or seven times more pleasant than anywhere else. We start drinking early. And while everyone else is seeing only one Santa Claus, we'll be seeing six or seven."
W.C. Fields
Dave Barry
"In the old days, it was not called the Holiday Season; the Christians called it 'Christmas' and went to church; the Jews called it 'Hanukka' and went to synagogue; the atheists went to parties and drank. People passing each other on the street would say 'Merry Christmas!' or 'Happy Hanukka!' or (to the atheists) 'Look out for the wall!'"
Dave Barry
"Christmas is a time when everybody wants his past forgotten and his present remembered. What I don't like about office Christmas parties is looking for a job the next day."
Phyllis Diller
"Christmas at my house is always at least six or seven times more pleasant than anywhere else. We start drinking early. And while everyone else is seeing only one Santa Claus, we'll be seeing six or seven."
W.C. Fields
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Note from Ashley @ Starkey
Last Week in Review: The Fed met, and Congress passed the Tax Cut Bill. But what do both of these mean for home loan rates? Forecast for the Week: Housing, inflation, and jobs news - all in a holiday shortened week. View: As you unwrap gifts this holiday season, don’t throw the wrapping paper in with your Yule Log... find out why, and other tips on keeping your holiday season safe and fun. |
Last Week in Review |
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"All good things must come to an end..." or so the popular saying goes. And right now, many people are wondering if this sentiment holds true for the historic low rates we’ve seen this year. Here’s what last week’s news suggests. First, it’s important to understand that home loan rates are based on Mortgage Backed Securities, which is a type of Bond. Bonds typically help provide some built in "assistance" when the nation is suffering economic headwinds. For example, negative economic news serves to help Bond prices improve and rates decline, including home loan rates. This is helpful to have when the economy is struggling, as buyers of all products - including homes - need the extra incentive of low rates to be encouraged to buy. But now, the sharply higher expectations for future economic growth has caused rates to climb - particularly including home loan rates, since the Fed announced its second round of "Quantitative Easing" or QE2 on November 3rd. With QE2, the Fed will purchase $600 Billion in Treasury Securities through mid-2011 to keep our economic recovery on track. But is there any likelihood rates can rebound? Many experts expect that home loan rates will continue to move higher over time because:
But the good news is that home loan rates are still extremely attractive right now. If you have been thinking about purchasing or refinancing a home, call or email me now to get started. Or forward this newsletter on to someone you know who may benefit from today’s historically low rates. |
Forecast for the Week |
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It will be a holiday shortened week, with the Bond Market closing at 2:00pm ET Thursday and both the Stock and Bond Markets closed Friday in honor of the Christmas holiday. But there will be plenty of action first, including:
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates rallied at the end of last week. Now would be a great time to call or email me if you have any questions about your situation! ----------------------- |
The Mortgage Market Guide View... |
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Make Your Holiday as Safe as it is Happy The holiday season is a special time of year, but the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) wants to remind everyone that it can also be dangerous. So the CPSC has issued a number of safety tips for the holidays and a holiday safety video to help keep families healthy, safe, and happy this season. Here are just three of the important tips that the CPSC posted on its website: 1. Choose Age-Appropriate Toys. Look at the age recommendation on the toys you are choosing and match that recommendation to your child. Avoid toys with small parts for children younger than three-years-old. Those small parts can cause a child to choke. For children under six-years-old, avoid play sets or building toys with small magnets. A child can swallow those magnets, which can result in a serious injury or even death. Starting at a young age, teach your children not to put toys in their mouths. 2. Gear Up. If sports-related gifts such as ride-on toys, bicycles, skates or scooters are on your gift list or around your house, make sure to include helmets that are sized to your child’s head and other appropriate safety gear. And then, make sure your child wears the gear properly EVERY time he or she uses the toy or sports equipment. 3. Plastic Wrap. Keep a trash bag at your fingertips while your kids are opening presents. That way, you can immediately throw away plastic wrappings and other toy packaging before they become dangerous playthings. As an added bonus, it makes your cleanup faster, too. Plus... Here are two bonus tips from the CPSC’s Twitter account:
You can also follow the CPSC on Twitter at http://twitter..com/OnSafety and even watch safety videos on YouTube at http://www.youtube.com/USCPSC. |
Quote(s) of the day.
A peace is of the nature of a conquest; for then both parties nobly are subdued, and neither party loser.
William Shakespeare
A people free to choose will always choose peace.
Ronald Reagan
An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind.
Mohandas Gandhi
Complete peace equally reigns between two mental waves.
Swami Sivananda
Even peace may be purchased at too high a price.
Benjamin Franklin
William Shakespeare
A people free to choose will always choose peace.
Ronald Reagan
An eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind.
Mohandas Gandhi
Complete peace equally reigns between two mental waves.
Swami Sivananda
Even peace may be purchased at too high a price.
Benjamin Franklin
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A creative man is motivated by the desire to achieve, not by the desire to beat others.
Ayn Rand
Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.
William James
Always continue the climb. It is possible for you to do whatever you choose, if you first get to know who you are and are willing to work with a power that is greater than ourselves to do it.
Ella Wheeler Wilcox
Always desire to learn something useful.
Sophocles
Ayn Rand
Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.
William James
Always continue the climb. It is possible for you to do whatever you choose, if you first get to know who you are and are willing to work with a power that is greater than ourselves to do it.
Ella Wheeler Wilcox
Always desire to learn something useful.
Sophocles
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A man always has two reasons for doing anything: a good reason and the real reason.
J. P. Morgan
A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd.
Max Lucado
Affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion.
Jim Rohn
Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren't used to an environment where excellence is expected.
Steve Jobs
J. P. Morgan
A man who wants to lead the orchestra must turn his back on the crowd.
Max Lucado
Affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion.
Jim Rohn
Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren't used to an environment where excellence is expected.
Steve Jobs
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A diplomat is a man who always remembers a woman's birthday but never remembers her age.
Robert Frost
Age is a very high price to pay for maturity.
Tom Stoppard
Age is an issue of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it doesn't matter.
Mark Twain
Age is not a particularly interesting subject. Anyone can get old. All you have to do is live long enough.
Don Marquis
Robert Frost
Age is a very high price to pay for maturity.
Tom Stoppard
Age is an issue of mind over matter. If you don't mind, it doesn't matter.
Mark Twain
Age is not a particularly interesting subject. Anyone can get old. All you have to do is live long enough.
Don Marquis
Monday, December 13, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
Faith is taking the first step even when you don't see the whole staircase.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Faith is to believe what you do not see; the reward of this faith is to see what you believe.
Saint Augustine
If patience is worth anything, it must endure to the end of time. And a living faith will last in the midst of the blackest storm.
Mohandas Gandhi
In faith there is enough light for those who want to believe and enough shadows to blind those who don't.
Blaise Pascal
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Faith is to believe what you do not see; the reward of this faith is to see what you believe.
Saint Augustine
If patience is worth anything, it must endure to the end of time. And a living faith will last in the midst of the blackest storm.
Mohandas Gandhi
In faith there is enough light for those who want to believe and enough shadows to blind those who don't.
Blaise Pascal
Friday, December 10, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
All change is not growth, as all movement is not forward.
Ellen Glasgow
All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy; for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter another.
Anatole France
Always remember that the future comes one day at a time.
Dean Acheson
Any change, even a change for the better, is always accompanied by drawbacks and discomforts.
Arnold Bennett
Ellen Glasgow
All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy; for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter another.
Anatole France
Always remember that the future comes one day at a time.
Dean Acheson
Any change, even a change for the better, is always accompanied by drawbacks and discomforts.
Arnold Bennett
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
Democracy is the recurrent suspicion that more than half of the people are right more than half of the time.
E. B. White
El Salvador is a democracy so it's not surprising that there are many voices to be heard here. Yet in my conversations with Salvadorans... I have heard a single voice.
Dan Quayle
Every politician should have been born an orphan and remain a bachelor.
Lady Bird Johnson
Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?
Robert Orben
E. B. White
El Salvador is a democracy so it's not surprising that there are many voices to be heard here. Yet in my conversations with Salvadorans... I have heard a single voice.
Dan Quayle
Every politician should have been born an orphan and remain a bachelor.
Lady Bird Johnson
Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?
Robert Orben
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you actually look forward to the trip.
Caskie Stinnett
All the president is, is a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing, and kicking people to get them to do what they are supposed to do anyway.
Harry S. Truman
Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.
John Quincy Adams
Democracy is being allowed to vote for the candidate you dislike least.
Robert Byrne
Caskie Stinnett
All the president is, is a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing, and kicking people to get them to do what they are supposed to do anyway.
Harry S. Truman
Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.
John Quincy Adams
Democracy is being allowed to vote for the candidate you dislike least.
Robert Byrne
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A man of courage is also full of faith.
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Every tomorrow has two handles. We can take hold of it with the handle of anxiety or the handle of faith.
Henry Ward Beecher
Faith consists in believing when it is beyond the power of reason to believe.
Voltaire
Faith has to do with things that are not seen and hope with things that are not at hand.
Thomas Aquinas
Marcus Tullius Cicero
Every tomorrow has two handles. We can take hold of it with the handle of anxiety or the handle of faith.
Henry Ward Beecher
Faith consists in believing when it is beyond the power of reason to believe.
Voltaire
Faith has to do with things that are not seen and hope with things that are not at hand.
Thomas Aquinas
Monday, December 6, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
Christmas is the time when kids tell Santa what they want and adults pay for it. Deficits are when adults tell government what they want and their kids pay for it.
Richard Lamm
Democracy is the only system that persists in asking the powers that be whether they are the powers that ought to be.
Sydney J. Harris
For in reason, all government without the consent of the governed is the very definition of slavery.
Jonathan Swift
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.
P. J. O'Rourke
Richard Lamm
Democracy is the only system that persists in asking the powers that be whether they are the powers that ought to be.
Sydney J. Harris
For in reason, all government without the consent of the governed is the very definition of slavery.
Jonathan Swift
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.
P. J. O'Rourke
Friday, December 3, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
Common sense is not so common.
Voltaire
Everyone is a genius at least once a year. The real geniuses simply have their bright ideas closer together.
Georg C. Lichtenberg
I'm not offended by all the dumb blonde jokes because I know I'm not dumb... and I also know that I'm not blonde.
Dolly Parton
Intelligence without ambition is a bird without wings.
Salvador Dali
Voltaire
Everyone is a genius at least once a year. The real geniuses simply have their bright ideas closer together.
Georg C. Lichtenberg
I'm not offended by all the dumb blonde jokes because I know I'm not dumb... and I also know that I'm not blonde.
Dolly Parton
Intelligence without ambition is a bird without wings.
Salvador Dali
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
All life is an experiment. The more experiments you make the better.
Ralph Waldo Emerson
All the art of living lies in a fine mingling of letting go and holding on.
Henry Ellis
Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
Anton Chekhov
Believe that life is worth living and your belief will help create the fact.
William James
Ralph Waldo Emerson
All the art of living lies in a fine mingling of letting go and holding on.
Henry Ellis
Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
Anton Chekhov
Believe that life is worth living and your belief will help create the fact.
William James
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A successful man is one who can lay a firm foundation with the bricks others have thrown at him.
David Brinkley
Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other.
Abraham Lincoln
Defeat is not the worst of failures. Not to have tried is the true failure.
George Edward Woodberry
Action is the foundational key to all success.
Pablo Picasso
David Brinkley
Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed is more important than any other.
Abraham Lincoln
Defeat is not the worst of failures. Not to have tried is the true failure.
George Edward Woodberry
Action is the foundational key to all success.
Pablo Picasso
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Quote(s) of the day.
A man begins cutting his wisdom teeth the first time he bites off more than he can chew.
Herb Caen
Honesty is the first chapter in the book of wisdom.
Thomas Jefferson
In seeking wisdom thou art wise; in imagining that thou hast attained it - thou art a fool.
Lord Chesterfield
Some folks are wise and some are otherwise.
Tobias Smollett
Patience is the companion of wisdom.
Saint Augustine
Herb Caen
Honesty is the first chapter in the book of wisdom.
Thomas Jefferson
In seeking wisdom thou art wise; in imagining that thou hast attained it - thou art a fool.
Lord Chesterfield
Some folks are wise and some are otherwise.
Tobias Smollett
Patience is the companion of wisdom.
Saint Augustine
Monday, November 29, 2010
From Ashley McKenzie @ Starkey
Market Comment - Week of November 29th, 2010
Mortgage bond prices closed sharply lower last week driving mortgage rates higher again. We started the week with some flight to quality buying following word that Ireland received a bailout from the EU and the IMF. This spread fears of additional bailouts with talk of Portugal and Spain possibly being next. However, rates shot higher later in the week following two Treasury auctions. Indirect bidders, an indication of foreign demand for US debt, were below average escalating fears that foreign banks might be cooling to our debt. Trading was cut short with the Thanksgiving holiday. Thin conditions Wednesday coupled with numerous data releases resulted in some wild market swings. Overall, the data this week was mixed. For the week, interest rates were worse by about 1/2 of a discount point.Look for the employment data to be released this week to result in mortgage interest rate volatility.
Economic Factors | |||
Economic Indicator | Release Date Time | Consensus Estimate | Analysis |
Consumer Confidence | Tuesday, Nov. 30, 2010 | 52.00 | Important. An indication of consumers' willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
ADP Employment | Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2010 | 25k | Important. An indication of employment. Weakness may bring lower rates. |
Revised Q3 Productivity | Wednesday, Dec.. 1, 2010 | Up 2.2% | Important. A measure of output per hour. Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
ISM Index | Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2010 | 56.00 | Important. A measure of manufacturer sentiment. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. |
Fed "Beige Book" | Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2010 | None | Important. Details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates. |
Employment | Friday, Dec. 3, 2010 | Jobs +150K, Unemp @ 9.7% | Very important. An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates. |
Factory Orders | Friday, Dec. 3, 2010 | -2.0% | Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. Weakness may lead to lower rates. |
Factory orders data is a monthly report released by the US Census Bureau. The release is officially referred to as The Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders.
The manufacturing sector is a major component of the economy. Investors use the factory orders report to attempt to determine the direction of the economy in the future. Orders are generally believed to be a precursor to activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing typically has an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to scale back; otherwise, the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.
Total factory orders break down to approximately 55% durable and 45% non-durable. Durable goods are items such as refrigerators, cars, and aircraft. Non-durables are items such as cigarettes, candy, and soap. The report is often dismissed due to the timing of the release. Durable goods orders are typically reported a week earlier making a portion of the factory orders data "old news." While some analysts dismiss the value of the factory orders data others point out the fact that the report provides a more complete picture than the initial durable goods release. Revisions to initial data along with non-durable figures are factored in providing a more accurate look at the condition of the manufacturing sector.
If the factory orders data shows a significant increase mortgage interest rates could be pressured higher. However, weakness in the data could help rates improve.
The manufacturing sector is a major component of the economy. Investors use the factory orders report to attempt to determine the direction of the economy in the future. Orders are generally believed to be a precursor to activity in the manufacturing sector because manufacturing typically has an order before considering an increase in production. Conversely, a decrease in orders eventually causes production to scale back; otherwise, the manufacturer accumulates inventories, which must be financed.
Total factory orders break down to approximately 55% durable and 45% non-durable. Durable goods are items such as refrigerators, cars, and aircraft. Non-durables are items such as cigarettes, candy, and soap. The report is often dismissed due to the timing of the release. Durable goods orders are typically reported a week earlier making a portion of the factory orders data "old news." While some analysts dismiss the value of the factory orders data others point out the fact that the report provides a more complete picture than the initial durable goods release. Revisions to initial data along with non-durable figures are factored in providing a more accurate look at the condition of the manufacturing sector.
If the factory orders data shows a significant increase mortgage interest rates could be pressured higher. However, weakness in the data could help rates improve.
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